PREVIEW: Can Rathcoffey upset favourites Grange in Kildare JFC Final?

It’s down to the decider for the 2025 Tom Cross Transport Kildare Junior Football Championship and it will be a battle between Grangenolvin and Rathcoffey to decide who lifts the Noel Moran Cup. Throw-in is scheduled for 5pm on Saturday, October 4 in Cedral St Conleth’s Park.

Grange were and remain the Championship favourites and they have played their part in that narrative by winning every game in this year’s JFC. Rathcoffey have been turned over once, in the group stages against Cappagh, a loss they avenged in the Semi-Finals last time out.

These finalists present an interesting conundrum with only one shared opponent this year having emerged from Group A and B respectively. That common enemy was Athgarvan so let’s have a look at how both sides fared against the boys in sky blue. On the scoreline front it was much the same with a five-point win (1-17 to 0-15) for Grange in their Semi-Final meeting and a six-point win (2-17 to 2-12) for Rathcoffey in the group stages.

The more relevant of the games is naturally the Semi-Final where Grange largely kept Athgarvan at arm’s length but owed a great deal of their success to their change of tact to more direct play in the second half. Much like the Premier League is experiencing at the minute, long direct passes are back in fashion and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Grange take to the skies again if they can’t break Rathcoffey down with ball through the hands in this game. Athgarvan surged late with a couple of two-pointers but the eventual finalists held their nerve, something that will be important once again in a final where they are being hotly tipped.

Scoring

The stats in both directions point in Grange’s favour with the high-scoring Bergin’s being backed by an impressively stingy defence. They are averaging 28.6 points per game (PPG) with Fionn Bergin leading their scoring charts by some distance having registered 5-31 in this year’s Championship already. We stay with Bergin’s for their second and third top-scorers with Cillian on 5-4 and Conall on 1-14 after two stellar campaigns in their own right.

Perhaps most impressively here from the game’s this writer has seen is that when Fionn goes quiet Cillian will pop and vice versa. If their route to goal is stifled, Conall is on hand to shoot from range. Grange’s options and reliance on their star shooters, but not sole reliance on one man for every moment in attack could be crucial for them in this game where Fionn will draw much of the attention.

However, if you remove Grange’s outlier of 8-21 scored against Kildangan, then the scoring is rather similar with Grange’s new average of 24.5 PPG sitting marginally below Rathcoffey’s 25.6 PPG. 

When looking at these numbers, you have to consider the variety of opponents, especially with so few shared. Previous consensus would be that stiffer competition lies in Group A with Grange, but this year’s Championship paints an entirely different picture with three of the four Junior Championship Semi-Finalists emerging from Group B. To halt the deep dive into the numbers, these teams can be summed up as both being strong scorers but Grange’s usual control of possession may afford Rathcoffey far less efforts at the posts than they have been used to.

The biggest source of that Rathcoffey scoring is Ethan O’Donoghue who moved top of their charts after an exceptional 2-5 against Cappagh in the Semi-Final. Alongside Michael O’Connor and Joey Toman, both of whom have been great value for a goal this year with nine between them, O’Donoghue will have to be on top shooting form in this final. The centre-forward isn’t shy about shooting from range and takes risks to create chances. Many Rathcoffey spells of possessions will finish in his hands or from his boots, so his efficiency will be crucial if they are to cause an upset in this game. Conversely, shutting off the supply of ball to O’Donoghue could be crucial to Grange’s success.

In terms of defensive output, Grange’s lack of generosity has been superb. They are far outkicking their concession rate with an average of just 14.8 points conceded per game. A mightily impressive stat in the new look Gaelic football at this level. Their control of most games has aided this statistic but defensive solidity by means of control has been the playbook of Naas GAA and many elite sides for many years. 

Rathcoffey conceded an average 19 PPG, also comfortably below their scoring average but certainly a less remarkable statistic.

The underdogs come in with a shout because of all the reasons that make sport something we love. Rathcoffey have scorers and the expectation lies with their opponents, but this writer is saying that won’t be enough here. 

No final is a free hit and, no matter how much of an underdog people say you are, Rathcoffey will have plenty of nervous energy too. Ultimately, I think Grange’s quality and control will tell, but nobody should expect them to have it all their own way.

Prediction: Grangenolvin