Irish greenhouse emissions soar to pre-Covid levels putting pressure on carbon budget

Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions increased by 4.7 per cent in 2021 compared to 2020 and are now 1.1 per cent above 2019 pre-Covid restriction levels. 

Latest figures from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) greenhouse gas emissions provisional report for 2021 show that Ireland is struggling to meet its carbon budget targets. 

Emissions from the Energy Industries sector increased by 17.6 per cent in 2021, driven by a tripling of coal and oil use in electricity generation. 

Agriculture emissions increased by 3.0 per cent in 2021, driven by increased fertiliser use (up 5.2 per cent) and a 2.8 per cent increase in the number of dairy cows.

Residential greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 4.9 per cent in 2021, driven by a combination of less time in the home, a milder winter and increased fuel prices.

Transport emissions increased by 6.1 per cent as COVID-19 restrictions lifted, however emissions were 10.5 per cent below the pre-Covid 2019 level.

The Provisional 2021 greenhouse gas emission numbers indicate that 23.5 per cent of the Carbon Budget for the 5-year period 2021-2025 has already been used, requiring an 8.4 per cent average annual emissions reduction from 2022-2025 to stay within budget.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published its provisional greenhouse gas emissions for Ireland for 2021 on July 21. 

In total in 2021, 61.53 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2eq) were emitted, with emissions 1.1 per cent above 2019 pre-COVID restriction levels.

The increase is mostly due to a significant increase in emissions from the Energy Industries sector due to a tripling of coal and oil use in electricity generation in 2021, with increases also seen in the agriculture and transport sectors. 

The figures indicate that in 2021, including Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), Ireland has used up 69.3 Mt CO2eq (23.5 per cent) of the 295 Mt CO2eq allowed for in the first of Ireland’s recently approved Carbon Budgets for the period 2021 to 2025.

This means that an average annual emissions reduction of 8.4 per cent (over 5 Mt CO2eq) per year would be required from 2022-2025 to stay within the budget.

The report also shows that Ireland will exceed its 2021 annual limit under the European Union’s Effort Sharing Regulation (EU 2018/842), without the use of flexibilities, by 2.7 Mt CO2eq. 

Commenting on the figures Laura Burke, Director General, EPA said: “A return to coal use in electricity generation, together with continued growth in emissions from the Agriculture sector and a partial rebound in Transport emissions following the easing of COVID restrictions, have combined to deliver an increase on pre-pandemic levels of emissions. 

"The data show the scale of change needed within and across all sectors of Ireland’s economy to make sustained progress in reversing this trend and to meet our EU commitments and National greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.”

A summary of the main sectoral emission trends is below.

Sectoral emissions in the Energy Industries sector showed an increase of 17.6 per cent in 2021, attributable to a tripling of both coal and fuel oil use in electricity generation.

The consumption of peat has continued to decline, by 67 per cent in 2021, and is currently at an all-time low within the power generation sector.

There was also a reduction in natural gas use by 8.9 per cent as some plants were offline for a time in 2021.

Electricity generated from renewables fell from 42 per cent in 2020 to 35 per cent, due to low rainfall and less wind. This resulted in an increase in the emissions intensity of power generation by 11.9 per cent in 2021 to 331 g CO2/kWh compared with 296 g CO2/kWh in 2020.

Agriculture emissions in 2021 were 23.1 Mt CO2eq, an increase of 3.0 per cent on 2020. Agricultural emissions did not reduce during COVID restrictions and this is the third year in a row that emissions increased.

The most significant drivers for the rise in emissions in 2021 were increased use of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser use of 5.2 per cent and higher dairy cow numbers of 2.8 per cent with an increase in milk production of 5.5 per cent. 

This is the 11th consecutive year that dairy cow numbers rose. Milk output per cow also increased (by 2.5 per cent), therefore increased production was driven by a rise in livestock numbers in conjunction with an increase in milk yield per cow. In 2021, total cattle numbers increased by 0.8per cent.

In 2021, liming on agricultural soils increased by 49.5 per cent, a welcome measure in improving soil fertility, which should lead to a reduction in fertiliser nitrogen use in future years.
Greenhouse gas emissions in the Residential sector were 7.04 Mt CO2eq in 2021 and decreased by 4.9 per cent or 0.36 Mt CO2eq compared to 2020.

However, emissions in 2020 had risen as a result of increased working from home. Emissions are now 2.8 per cent above pre-pandemic levels in this sector. A combination of warmer weather, rising fuel prices towards the end of the year and an easing of COVID restrictions contributed to substantial reductions in coal, peat and kerosene use for home heating. 

However, since 2014, fuel use per household has increased by 12 per cent with CO2 emissions per household at 3.8 t CO2 in 2021.

Increases in traffic volumes during 2021 as COVID-restrictions lifted resulted in a 6.1 per cent rise in transport emissions. Emissions had fallen significantly in the transport sector in 2020 as a result of Covid restrictions.

Emissions in this sector remain 10.5 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, and it is unclear if they will rebound fully to that level. Road transport emissions increased from 9.7 Mt CO2eq in 2020 to 10.3 Mt CO2eq in 2021.

At the end of 2021, there were just under 47,000 battery electric (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric (PHEVs) vehicles in Ireland, approximately 24 per cent of the Climate Action Plan target for 2025 of 195,300 and ahead of a linear uptake trajectory towards that target.

In 2021, total international aviation contributed 1.3 Mt CO2 from over 52,500 return flights from Irish airports, a significant reduction on recent trends, with international aviation emissions averaging over 3.0 Mt CO2eq per year prior to COVID pandemic. Although not part of Ireland’s total greenhouse gas emissions by international agreement, this is a significant reduction in greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere. 

Commenting, Stephen Treacy, Senior Manager, EPA said: “The Provisional greenhouse gas emission estimates for 2021 are a cause for concern in relation to achieving Ireland’s binding Carbon Budget targets. Staying within the current budget now requires deep emission cuts of over 5 Mt CO2 eq per annum over the succeeding four years.”