Met Éireann's recent track guidance for the centre of Lorenzo
Met Éireann says Storm Lorenzo will make landfall in Ireland at midnight on Thursday heading across the country overnight bringing strong winds and pulses of heavy rain as it crosses Ireland.
It an updated commentary on the ex-hurricane, the forecaster says Storm Lorenzo was located 340 km west of Belmullet, Co Mayo at midday on Thursday, October 3.
Storm force west to southwest gusts were recorded on the southern side of Lorenzo as it passed over a Met Éireann weather station buoy in the Atlantic off the Galway coast.
A slight deepening of the Lorenzo is forecast on Thursday afternoon as it tracks north-eastwards to the west of Ireland. Because of this, Met Éireann says south-easterly winds will be strong and gusty over much of the country this afternoon, with a countrywide yellow wind warning in operation until 6pm today.
The forecaster says the storm is expected to then turn east south-eastwards this evening around 7pm towards the west coast of Mayo. This turn is due to upper air steering flows high up in the atmosphere.
By this time, Met Éireann says the depression will be starting to fill which means is that the storm force winds on the southern side of the low will begin to slowly subside.
The orange level wind warning for western coastal counties of Galway, Mayo, Clare, Kerry and Limerick will come into operation at 6pm while the yellow wind warning will become confined to Cork, Waterford, Tipperary and Wexford.
Met Éireann says Lorenzo is expected to make landfall between Erris Head and Killala Bay in County Mayo around midnight or soon after.
It says strong winds and large waves will affect western and southern coasts this evening and tonight with the potential for coastal flooding and damage.
The forecaster expects Lorenzo to fill quite rapidly as it tracks south-eastwards over the country overnight. It says winds in the centre and to the north of the low will be generally light to moderate variable. However, be pulses of heavier rain are expected in the centre and to the north of the low, with a yellow rainfall warning in operation to account for this.
Below is some recent track guidance for the centre of Lorenzo from our HARMONIE Irish Regional Ensemble Prediction suite from midnight October 3 to midday on October 4.